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Comparing remaining schedules for Serie A’s Champions League challengers

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There’s four teams fighting it out for three available spots

UEFA Champions League 2020/21 Quarter-finals And Semi-Finals Draw Photo by Valentin Flauraud - UEFA

Juventus would not have wanted until the end of the season to come down to this, but yet here we are. With just five games left to play, second through fifth place is up for grabs in Serie A. Atalanta currently lead the pack behind Inter Milan with 68 points, with Napoli, Juve and AC Milan all tied on 66 points and separated by a series of tiebreakers.

For reference, if any two or more sides are tied on points at the end of the season, the final positions will be determined based on the following criteria in this order:

  • Head-to-head record
  • Head-to-head goal difference
  • Head-to-head goals scored
  • Overall goal difference

Let’s take a look at the remaining schedules for the quartet of sides involved before we take a look at who has what advantage in the tiebreakers, along with their opponent’s league position and score from the first leg of games.

Juventus (Fourth place)

  • @ Udinese [11th] (Juventus 4-1 Udinese)
  • vs AC Milan [5th] (Milan 1-3 Juventus)
  • @ Sassuolo [8th] (Juventus 3-1 Sassuolo)
  • vs Inter Milan [1st] (Inter 2-0 Juventus)
  • @ Bologna [12th] (Juventus 2-0 Bologna)

Average league position of opponent - 8th
Record against opponents - W4 D0 L1

Atalanta (Second place)

  • @ Sassuolo [8th] (Atalanta 5-1 Sassuolo)
  • @ Parma [19th] (Atalanta 3-0 Parma)
  • vs Benevento [18th] (Benevento 1-4 Atalanta)
  • @ Genoa [13th] (Atalanta 0-0 Genoa)
  • vs AC Milan [5th] (Milan 0-3 Atalanta)

Average league position of opponent - 13th
Record against opponents - W4 D1 L0

Napoli (Third place)

  • vs Cagliari [17th] (Cagliari 1-4 Napoli)
  • @ Spezia [15th] (Napoli 1-2 Spezia)
  • vs Udinese [11th] (Udinese 1-2 Napoli)
  • @ Fiorentina [14th] (Napoli 6-0 Fiorentina)
  • vs Hellas Verona [10th] (Verona 3-1 Napoli)

Average league position of opponent - 14th
Record against opponents - W3 D0 L2

AC Milan (Fifth place)

  • vs Benevento [18th] (Benevento 0-2 Milan)
  • @ Juventus [4th] (Milan 1-3 Juventus)
  • @ Torino [16th] (Milan 2-0 Torino)
  • vs Cagliari [17th] (Cagliari 0-2 Milan)
  • @ Atalanta [2nd] (Milan 0-3 Atalanta)

Average league position of opponent - 12th
Record against opponents - W4 D0 L1

While Juventus appear to have the most difficult remaining schedule, they also avoid the hoodoo of the bottom teams that they have been struggling to beat all season long. Additionally, with Genoa, Fiorentina, Spezia, Torino, Cagliari and Benevento are all going to be in a do-or-die battle to avoid joining Parma and Crotone as one of the teams to be relegated, one assumes they will have more motivation than say Udinese and Bologna when Juve take them on.

If Juventus tie with Atalanta: Juve drew with the Bergamo side 1-1 in the first leg before losing 1-0 away recently. Atalanta will have the tiebreaker over Juventus.

If Juventus tie with Napoli: Juve lost 1-0 at Napoli, before beating them 2-1 in Turin. The head-to-head record is tied, as is the head-to-head goal difference and goals scored. However, in overall goals difference Napoli have the edge over Juventus by one.

If Juventus tie with AC Milan: Juve beat the Milan side 3-1 at San Siro, and the two longtime rivals meet again in Turin on Sunday, May 9. Milan also have a vastly inferior overall goal difference to Juve if it comes down to it.