We are about two weeks ago from resuming action in the Serie A with a number of different avenues being left open to complete the interrupted 2019-20 season. With the advent of the worldwide coronavirus pandemic earlier this year, the race for this year’s Scudetto had to be halted in March.
However, plans continue to be proposed by league leadership to finish out the season. Plan A is to play the remainder of the season’s fixtures behind closed-doors along with rigorous safety and security measures to protect all involved from COVID-19.
If play is to be interrupted again though due to widespread infection, then a playoffs schedule has been proposed to settle the biggest questions around the campaign, namely who wins the league, who finishes in the European spots and who gets relegated.
And now the game’s governing body in Italy has announced a Plan C as well, in case the playoffs option is not possible either. Per Sky Sports Italia (via Get Italian Football News), FIGC president Gabriele Gravina has mooted the following mathematical formula to determine each Serie A team’s final points tally.
Pt(x) + [(mpc t(x) x c t(z-x)) +(mpf t(x) x f t(z-x))]
‘Pt’ = current points total
‘mpc’ = points average of all home games
‘c t(z-x)’ = home games left to play
‘mpf t(x)’ = points average of all away games
‘f t(z-x)’ = away games left to play
There is one additional provisio though, that the formula will only be put into play if and only if three more matchdays are completed. In addition, if the algorithm is used to end the season, then Scudetto itself will not be assigned.
Per the schedule released, Juventus’ next three games are away at Bologna (10th), home against Lecce (18th) and away at Genoa (17th). Lazio sit in second place a point behind, and their next three are at Atalanta (4th), home vs Fiorentina (13th) and at Torino (15th). The Bianconeri on paper face a slightly easier task coming up, but for the sake of conjecture, should both sides win all three of their next games and the season is then halted, the overall points totals will look like this -
Juventus: 72 + [((40÷14) x 5) + ((32÷15) x 4)] = 94.82 points
Lazio: 71 + [((39÷15) x 4) + ((32÷14) x 5)] = 92.83 points
This will only count as a moral victory though as Juve will not be handed their ninth consecutive Scudetto if the algorithm is used to settle the campaign.
And for those asking about Antonio Conte’s Inter Milan.. they’re currently nine points off Juventus with a game in hand, and even if they win their next three, they only end up with in the distance with 85.5 points. If Atalanta were to win their next three they would end up with 77.36 likely sealing up the fourth and final Champions League spot.
Of course, this has once again got the tongues wagging on Twitter, but do we care?
The algorithm which could be used to determine the Serie A winner, if the season is stopped again: J(u) + [(ven) + t] + us. https://t.co/b62wlGhF1U— Ronan Murphy (@swearimnotpaul) June 4, 2020